West Ham has given Julen Lopetegui a last ridiculous ultimatum for two games to save his job. It is not working, it probably never will work and it must be ended immediately.

When Julen Lopetegui deflected criticism by pointing out that “there are 38 games in the Premier League and we will talk in May”, he summed up West Ham’s deep seated incompatibility with his manager.

A Premier League season may comprise 38 games for each team, but a typical West Ham campaign is divided into three games in which they scramble, tackle and make no decisions.

“On 28 December we beat Arsenal, we beat them at the Emirates and they offered me a new contract that day,” David Moyes said earlier this month. “Then we lost three games in a row. David Sullivan withdrew his contract just on the basis of results.”

The win over Arsenal was their third in a row, with Wolves and Manchester United also beaten in December. Then came a run of three consecutive draws, followed by a critical run of three defeats in February.

No serious institution would be prone to such sudden and volatile changes on the basis of the most recent evidence; West Ham seem to be proud of it.

This bold stance by Lopetegui came at the end of September, when the wounds of Liverpool’s 5-1 defeat in the Carabao were still fresh and the Hammers were in 14th place with one win in their opening five league games.

The media reported that the Spaniard “will be closely monitored in the next three games” and “if results and performances do not improve, he could come under increasing scrutiny”.

In these decisive matches, they won, drew and lost: Brentford held them, then they were thrashed by Ipswich and fell to Spurs.

The following month, it was said that “the next three games until the international break will be decisive for his future”, as West Ham occupied 16th place with two wins in their opening eight league games.

In those decisive games, he won, drew and lost, beating Manchester United, who were terribly unconvincing, before being carried off by Nottingham Forest and narrowly salvaging a point against Everton.

When West Ham’s results seem to depend on a three-sided coin toss, and when West Ham’s decision on their manager depends on those results, it doesn’t matter how many games they give Lopetegui, because he will always do just enough to hang on.

Perhaps it is a question of the media or, more pertinently, how West Ham exploits this special relationship. The Guardian’s well-informed Jacob Steinberg has now written remarkably similar articles about Lopetegui’s future before and after the last international break this year.

In the first, on 6 November, he wrote that West Ham’s management would “review” Lopetegui’s situation if they lost to Everton. On 20 November, after one very unfavourable home draw, “there was a serious possibility that he would be sacked later in the month”.

Two weeks ago, the Everton game “was not considered decisive or a turning point”, but now Lopetegui “faces two decisive or turning point games” against Newcastle and Arsenal. Both articles cite the same unimaginable list of four candidates for replacement, the wonderfully vague claim that “long-term and short-term appointments are being considered”, the tendency of co-owner Sullivan not to sack mid-season, the increasing scrutiny of technical director Tim Steidten, and concerns about tactics and discipline.

This makes the apparent need to pass judgement on the basis of the next one, two or three games a mockery. Why put so much emphasis on a game that Newcastle have not won since August 2021? What is achieved if Lopetegui’s future depends on the Arsenal game five days later, when, of course, their last three results in the Premier League against the Gunners have been a win, a draw and a defeat? Will these tactical and disciplinary concerns really be resolved in 180 minutes? If they draw one of those games, does it make sense to save that shortlist until the next panic?

A glance at the fixture list up to and just after Christmas suggests that there will be more of the same. The games against Leicester and Wolves look very precarious to win. Tough tests against Bournemouth and Brighton, then a trip to Southampton. After that, successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City will mark the anniversary of Moyes’ impulsive job bid. If Lopetegui doesn’t win at least two consecutive games to save his job in the meantime, it will be a surprise.

But West Ham have locked themselves into this infernal circle. It’s a problem of their own making, which they double down on every time Lopetegui gets these weak ultimatums that do nothing to establish an actual playing identity or semblance of direction.